Irina Forden’s blog

Aug. 24, 2008

photo provided by Mitya Aleshkovsky

Just about a month ago three obscure former Soviet republics - Georgia, Ossetia and Abkhazia were little known to the outside world, but it all changed seemingly overnight.
Latest violent fight between Georgia and Russia for the two breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia made headlines around the world.

The last and the most violent part of this never ending conflict lasted about 3 weeks and it’s not clear whether it is completely over, not yet. I doubt that on that fateful day Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili realized what his reckless military actions in and near South Ossetia would lead to.
Russian Military retaliation was fierce and incredibly fast.

By allowing himself to be sucked into an open bloody conflict, which turned out to be a complete disaster, Georgian president had made a series of major blunders no politician can afford to make.

As a result, South Ossetia and his own country are facing now a significant destruction, Georgian infrastructure sustained a major damage, many Georgian villages and small cities were bombed, burned and looted, many people killed.

Some people on Georgian territory died as a result of a Russian offensive,
but there is enough substantial evidence of a numerous Georgians killed (as a revenge for the past persecutions done by Georgians) by organized crime gangs from Ossetia, Chechnya and even Southern part of Russia - Cossacs.

This latest conflict involving Russia, Georgia, Ossetia and Abkhazia is nothing new. Entire Caucasus region - Northern and Southern regions are torn apart by too many ethnic conflicts.
In a past Georgians killed and persecuted numerous Ossetians and Abkhazians, who in turn tried to retaliate in many ways.

Here is a detailed description of the events that lead to this latest conflict between Russia and Georgia.

April, 2008

UN observers conclude that a Russian fighter-jet shot down a Georgian spy drone over Abkhazia.
Russia’s Defence Ministry denied the allegations.
Abkhazian Defence Minister insists that it was the Abkhazian Air Force who shot down the spy drone.
Some time ago Georgia and Abkhazia signed a ceasefire agreement which prohibited sending any kind of drones over the conflict zone.

May 4, 2008

Abkhazian oficial says that 2 drone Georgian spy planes were shot down by Abkhazian anti-aircraft forces over the region of Abkhazia.
A Georgian Foreign Ministry dismisses these claims as a “completely absurd disinformation”.
At the same time the tension between Georgia and Russia continued to increase and Georgia accuses Moscow of shooting down another one of it’s unmanned (drone) spy planes.
Conflicting claims and accusations over drone spy planes attribute to a further increase of the tension between Russia and Georgia.

This is where things get really insanely confusing, both sides continue to accuse each other of all sorts of crimes, but at the same time everybody denies just about everything.
Like it or not I call it “The Caucasian Puzzle”. No matter how much I read I couldn’t understand what was true and what was a lie.
It appears that all the sides were and still are engaged into an endless cycle of accusations and hostilities, which in the end lead to this latest “mini” war between Russia and Georgia.

Throughout June and July Georgians periodically shoot over Tskhinvali, Ossetians retaliate back with shootings too.
Both sides blame each other for provocations.

Jul 4, 2008

South Ossetia claims shootings in Tskhinvali and surrounding areas killed 2 people and wounded 11 and blames Georgia for trying to provoke a fighting.
A Georgian defense official denies that Georgian troops fired at Ossetians and says that the incident is a part of ongoing provocation by South Ossetian separatists.
In a meantime Russian state leaders say they will defend their citizens in South Ossetia, referring to the nearly 70,000 people who have Russian passports.

Jul. 10, 2008

Georgia recalls it’s ambassador from Russia after Moscow admits it’s fighter jets had entered Georgian airspace earlier in July.
Tbilisi accuses Moscow of committing a “very grave act of aggression”, Russians in turn say they sent a fighter jet over South Ossetia to “cool hot heads in Tbilisi”.

Jul 11, 2008

A Georgian official warns Russia that it will have to “collect the shattered fragments” of its planes if they intrude Georgian airspace again.

July 15, 2008

A joint Georgian - U.S. military exercise ” Immediate Response 2008″ has started near Tbilisi (Georgian capital).

Aug 2, 2008

South Ossetian officials reported that 6 people were killed and 13 wounded in the shelling of South Ossetia by Georgian forces,
according to Russia’s Interfax News agency.
The commander of Georgian peacekeeping operations - Mamuka Kurashvili, told reporters that “four people were wounded when
several Georgian villages were fired upon from South Ossetia, and Georgia had to return fire.”

Aug 6, 2008

Authorities in the South Ossetia say that the outer areas of the region’s capital
were coming under heavy fire from Georgian-controlled territory, it was reported by Russian news agencies.

Aug 7, 2008

Georgia and South Osetia negotiate ceasefire agreement, but later that day Georgian troops
launch an unexpected attack on Tskhinvali, capital of South Ossetia. Russia condemns the attack and threatens to retaliate.

Aug 8, 2008

Georgian troops launch a major military offensive to regain control over the breakaway region of South Ossetia and Georgian government says it is all done “to restore the constitutional order”.
Russian leaders say they will defend their citizens in South Ossetia, about 70,000 people in South Ossetia have Russian passports.
Although technically South Ossetia is not recognized by the world community as a separate country,
it has been a de facto independent entity since 1992.
Russian air force begins attacks on military targets in Georgia.
Georgian president M. Saakashvili declares a state of war between Russia and Georgia.
Russian state television says Russian troops are moving into South Ossetia.
Military convoy was expected to reach the provincial capital Tskhinvali by evening.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warns that the Georgian attack will draw retaliation.

Aug 9, 2008

City of Tskhinvali is taken by Russians. Russian air force bombs Poti, Gori, military base in Senaki, Honi, Vaziani and
other targets in Kodori region. News about civilian casualties start coming in, Russians say 2,000 civilians were killed in a fighting, few days later they estimate that number to be at 1,492 .
Georgia says 130 civilians were killed.

Aug. 10, 2008

Georgia offers to negotiate with Russia a ceasefire and peace talks after pulling troops back from South Ossetia’s capital.
Russia says the fighting is continuing and demands an unconditional Georgian withdrawal.
US and European leaders warn Russia that failure to withdraw Russian troops from South Ossetia will damage international relations.

Aug 11, 2008

Russia accuses Georgia of breaking a ceasefire agreement and says Georgia is continuing to shell Tskhinvali.
Georgia’s attack on Tskhinvali was also confirmed by Reuters news agency.
About 9,000 Russian troops sent into Abkhazia and allegedly later sent into Georgia through a border with Abkhazia.
By opening a second front and moving deeper into Georgia’s territory Russia forced Georgia to withdraw it’s troops from Tskhinvali.
Russia demands full disarmament of Georgian troops in the area.
EU representatives visit Georgia, President Mikheil Saakashvili signs a ceasefire agreement.

Aug 12, 2008

Russian officials say they no longer want presence of Georgian peacemakers in the Ossetian and Abkhazian regions.
Nicolas Sarkozy meets with Russian leaders in Moscow to negotiate a ceasefire agreement.

Aug 18, 2008

The government of Abkhazia takes control over the Kodori Gorge region.

Aug 19, 2008

Russian troops continue to move further in to Georgia.
NATO holds meeting in Brussels. US and British government leaders insist on taking a tough approach,
Germany and France call for a more cautious actions.
Russia warns NATO that it’s relationship with Moscow would suffer if foreign ministers back Georgia.

Aug. 22, 2008

Russia finally started a withdrawal of it’s troops from parts of Georgia - Igoeti and Senaki.
Certain amount of troops left Gori and moved towards the South Ossetia.
Russia is demanding to leave a much larger number of a peace keepers around certain strategically important places in Georgia and South Osetia to establish a buffer zone.
Russian military personnel insists that they got an order to move only back to the border of South Ossetia.
Vitalyi Churkin, Russian UN representative refused to sign a newly edited by UN version of an earlier six point plan signed by Sarkozy and Medvedev.

The original version of a ceasefire agreement (otherwise called six point peace plan) contained a point in which there was an agreement to allow Russian side to establish a buffer zone on Georgian territory up to 10 km beyond South Osetia.
UN also insists on sending an international peacekeepers to Georgia.
The original six-point peace plan allegedly allows Russian forces to take the additional unspecified security measures and, as expressed by some western diplomats, is very vague.

Aug 23, 2008

Russians declare that the pullback of troops from Georgia is finished, but there is apparently still a significant number of the weapons
and military personnel left in a parts of Georgia.

This week Russia has been negotiating a six point plan (ceasefire agreement) with UN and only agrees to follow an earlier version of a six point plan (Medvedev-Sarkozy plan)
approved originally by Presidents of France, Georgia and Russia and backed by EU.
Allegedly, Sarkozy’s plan originally had just the first four points.
Russia added the fifth and sixth points. Georgia apparently asked for additional changes, but Russia rejected them and Sarkozy
convinced Georgia to agree to the unchanged plan.

Six point plan -

1. No recourse to the use of force.

2. Definitive cessation of hostilities.

3. Free access to humanitarian aid (addition rejected: and to allow the return of refugees).

4. Georgian military forces must withdraw to their normal bases of encampment.

5. Russian military forces must withdraw to the lines prior to the start of hostilities. While awaiting an international mechanism,

Russian peacekeeping forces will implement additional security measures (addition rejected: six months).

6. Opening of international discussions on the modalities of lasting security in Abkhazia and South Ossetia

(addition rejected: based on the decisions of the UN and the OSCE).

Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said that Russia would only follow the above mentioned six point plan and that there was no question of a territorial integrity of Georgia mentioned in that document.
New version of the agreement was significantly changed by diplomats from UN and after that Russian side refused to sign it.
Vitaly Churkin mentioned that the most unacceptable point in the agreement was “an immidiate withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia back to it’s original location in South Ossetia.”
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made a following statement - “One can forget about any talk about Georgia’s territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state”.

Statements done by the US, European and Russian officials are showing a huge difference in the way West and Russia interpret the ceasefire agreement.
Some of the major points of disagreement is that Russian forces can carry out unspecified “additional security measures” to resolve the conflict and also a preservation of a territorial integrity of Georgia.
Both breakaway regions - South Ossetia and Abkhazia voted to separate from Georgian republic after a proclamation of a Georgian independence in 1991.

In the aftermath of a conflict Russian State is facing another problem - foreign capital started to flow out of the country at a significant rate and it is predicted that investments and funds by Russian companies into the US are likely to face tougher scrutiny in Washington, as predicted by experts.
Russia’s stock markets were affected since the conflict began.

RGE Monitor reports about it on their website
http://www.rgemonitor.com/ -
“Conflict in Georgia: Economic and Financial Fallout ” -
“This conflict is having a significant effect on the economies and financial markets of Georgia and Russia, as well as on the region and energy supply.”

As a direct result of the conflict, tension and misunderstanding had significantly increased between US,
Western and some Eastern European countries and Russia -

Poland just signed an agreement with US to station parts of a U.S. missile defence shield on Polish soil, drawing an immediate negative response from Moscow.
One of Russia’s deputy chiefs of General Staff - Anatoly Nogovitsyn said that Poland’s agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base “exposes the Poland to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons”.

Foreign Ministry of Ukraine issued a statement saying it was prepared to give Western countries access to its missile-warning systems.

Reports start to come in about Russia negotiating a deal about selling weapons and weapons systems to Syria.
This week Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad explored the possibility of the deployment of Russian missiles on his territory.
Russian media agencies release information about that Moscow is also interested in an establishing a naval base for the Russian Black Sea fleet at the Syrian port of Tartus.
New naval base can be very useful for Russia after the agreement with Ukraine expires in 2017.
Ukraine had threatened recently to refuse an entry to the Russian vessels back to the Sevastopol naval base. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet uses the Sevastopol base under
agreements signed in 1997. President of Ukraine Yushchenko announced earlier this year that Ukraine would not extend the lease of the base beyond 2017.

News about latest negotiations between Russia and Syria in turn caused a great concern among the top US and Israeli officials.
Syria and Russia were a close allies in a Soviet past.

Latest conflict and a further escalation of hostilities between so many countries is a direct result of a too much of a political meddling in the region done by many different governments.
This subject in itself is so complex that it requires a further detailed assessment, which I will try to prepare in a future.
To summarize matters in short - too many power hungry world leaders and their governments were involved into this conflict and not just from Georgia or Russia.
A little bit of more “warmongers” from around the world and we are back to the Cold War - era (I hope it’s not too late) and with a little bit of “help” matters could get even worse.
With a current destabilization in a Middle East, economic crisis in US, Russia’s latest attempts to restore an old influence in some parts of the world and what it appears to be a return of the old competition between US and Russia for a world domination - we are in for a long “fun ride”.

Analysing all the latest events in the world we need to ask ourselves - will US be better off with a reasonable, democratic and less aggressive towards Russia and other countries, future US President, or with the one who had already proved himself to be fairly hostile towards Russia and is playing a big tough guy ?

It seems that in a last 8 years only the tough and autocratic type leaders were popular in US and Russia.
I think here in US we are in the urgent need to choose in the coming presidential elections a more reasonable and cautious candidate for the President of US.
This world can use a little bit of a real diplomacy, patience and understanding between all countries.

by Irina Forden